Can the United States control its Covid-19 outbreak?
By March 26, the United States, with the world’s third largest population, surpassed China and Italy as the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world. On a per capita basis, the U.S. had the 11th most cases of any country. By April 25, The United States ranked 10th in deaths per million people with 158, compared to Italy (423), Spain (474), and France (326). By April 25, the U.S. had over 905,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and nearly 52,000 deaths, giving it a mortality rate around 5.7 percent. Comparatively, Spain’s mortality rate was 10.2 percent and Italy at 13.5 percent; Dr. Deborah Birx pointed out the nation’s low mortality rate during a White House coronavirus briefing. Of those, more than 10,000 deaths occurred in nursing homes. Most nursing homes did not have easy access to testing, making the actual number unknown. Subsequently, a number of states including Maryland and New Jersey reported their own estimates of deaths at nursing homes, ranging from 20 to 50 percent.
In counting actual confirmed cases, some have questioned the reliability of totals reported by different countries. Measuring rates reported by countries such as China or Iran have been questioned as potentially inaccurate. In mid-April 2020, China revised its case totals much higher and its death toll up by 50% for Wuhan, partly as a result of a number of countries having questioned China’s official numbers. Iran’s rates have also been disputed, as when the WHO’s reports about their case counts were contradicted by top Iranian health officials.[329] Within the U.S., there are also discrepancies in rates between different states. After a group of epidemiologists requested revisions in how the CDC counts cases and deaths, the CDC in mid-April updated its guidance for counting COVID-19 cases and deaths to include both confirmed and probable ones, although each state can still determine what to report.[330] Without accurate reporting of cases and deaths, however, epidemiologists have difficulty in guiding government response.
The federal government of the United States responded to the pandemic with various declarations of emergency, which resulted in travel and entry restrictions. They also imposed guidelines and recommendations regarding the closure of schools and public meeting places, lockdowns, and other restrictions intended to slow the progression of the virus, which state, territorial, tribal, and local governments have followed. The response to the pandemic has resulted in unprecedented expansion of government power. Advocates of small government worry that the state will be reluctant to give up that power once the crisis is over, as has often been the case historically.
After mid-March, the federal government made a major move to use the U.S. military to add health care capacity to impacted areas. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), under existing statutory authority that comes from authorizations and powers of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is leasing many buildings nationwide such as hotels, college dormitories, and larger open buildings to immediately convert them into hospital facilities. To assist USACE and FEMA efforts, the United States Army is setting up field hospitals in cities widely affected by the pandemic. Some of these facilities will have ICU capability for patients of the pandemic, while others will serve non-coronavirus patients to allow established hospitals to concentrate on the pandemic. A public briefing of the plan was given by Army General Todd Semonite on March 20. USACE will handle leasing and engineering, with contracts for rapid facility modification and setup issued to local contractors. The plan envisions that the operation of the facilities and the provision of medical staff would be entirely handled by the various U.S. states rather than the Federal government.[334] One of the early and largest buildings to be converted is the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York City, which was quickly being transformed into a 2,000-bed care facility on March 23, 2020.
The pandemic, along with the resultant stock market crash and other impacts, has led a recession in the United States following the economic cycle peak in February 2020. The economy contracted 4.8 percent from January through March 2020, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent in April. The total healthcare costs of treating the epidemic could be anywhere from $34 billion to $251 billion according to analysis presented by The New York Times. A study by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson indicated that most economic impact due to consumer behavior changes was prior to mandated lockdowns.
